Research

Air pollution kills more people than AIDS and malaria combined, and climate change is one of the biggest threats to human survival and well-being in the twenty-first century.  Motivated by these problems, Prof. Shen’s research explores how incentives shape environmental politics in developing countries, especially China.

Selected papers are listed below.  Please refer to the CV for a full list of papers.

Selected Papers

Shen, S. V. The Political Pollution Cycle.

  • Abstract: Incentives shape political behavior. This paper shows that even after controlling for institutional factors and macro trends, local policy implementation in autocracies like China can change over time in potentially predictive ways. Studying the critical case of air pollution control policies, I advance a theory of what I call the “political pollution cycle” to fathom the effect of political incentives on local policy implementation over time. I theorize that local leaders cater to the policy prioritization of the center and, in the process, foster systematic regional patterns of air quality over time. Using remote sensing, box modeling, observational data, and qualitative field research, I find that top prefectural leaders in China ordered laxer regulation of pollution towards the end of their tenure so that the delivery of social stability and economic achievements boded well for their career advancement. Such regulatory forbearance came unintentionally with tremendous human costs.
  • Winner of the 2017 Paul A. Sabatier Award. Award by the American Political Science Association for the best conference paper on science, technology, and environmental politics.
  • Winner of the 2018 Malcolm Jewell Award. Award by the Southern Political Science Association for the best overall graduate student conference paper.

Shen, S. V. Local Political Regulation Waves. [Please email to obtain a copy.]

Shen, S. V., Martinez, C., & Franco, E. When Electoral Responsiveness Harms Voters: Evidence from Electoral Pollution Cycles in Mexico’s Metropolitan Areas. [Please email to obtain a copy.]

Publications

Shen, S. V. (Forthcoming). Pricing Carbon to Contain ViolenceWorld Bank.

  • Abstract: Violence is destructive to social order, economic growth, and the human condition. The annual total cost of violence is estimated to be 11 percent of the world’s GDP. However, violence has rarely made its way into economic models. In the meantime, increasing scientific evidence points to an active link between climate change and the incidence of interpersonal and intergroup violence. This study connects the climate–economy and the climate–violence systems by putting forth a new method to internalize the costs of climate-induced violence in the established MERGE integrated assessment model. It finds that such internalization can double the optimal carbon price, a relationship that holds across different specifications regarding climate sensitivity, GDP growth rate, and the willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid nonmarket climate damages. Normatively, under the realistic assumption that the WTP is at 1 percent of regional income, the avoided costs from climate-induced violence in sub–Saharan Africa is modeled to reach 3.7 percent of the region’s GDP in 2200, a very significant figure for an area that is already riddled with underdevelopment and violence. The approach of this paper is a first for the modeling community, indicating directions for future research. For the policy community, this paper takes recent econometric findings to the next step toward understanding required for decisions.
  • Discussed on The World Bank.

Shen, S. V., Cain, B. E., & Hui, I. (2019). Public Receptivity in China towards Wind Energy Generators: A Survey Experimental ApproachEnergy Policy, 129, 619 – 627. [PDF]

  • Abstract: China leads the world’s wind energy market, but little has been written about public receptivity towards wind energy generators in China. To fill this gap, we pursue a survey experimental approach to examine explanations for receptivity based on evidence from OECD countries as well as the importance of public knowledge in augmenting public acceptance of wind energy generators in China. We find that Chinese respondents are sensitive to turbine siting near their residences, to cost considerations when imposed on them directly, to wildlife externalities, and to noise from turbines. Interestingly, Chinese respondents seem to be concerned about radiation, a finding unprecedented in the literature, and are less assured by scientific assurances that radiation is not a problem. Instead, the Chinese central government is best suited to address concerns about this topic. Targeted information provision to the public can improve public knowledge about aspects of wind energy of concern. Hence, the Chinese central government can promote wind energy deployment not just because it is an authoritarian government determined to get things done, but also because it can provide relevant information to reduce potential public resistance.
  • Profiled on Caixin (财新), Sina (新浪)Stanford Energy.

Shao, Q., & Shen, S. V. (2017). When Reduced Working Time Harms the Environment: A Panel Threshold Analysis for EU-15, 1970-2010Journal of Cleaner Production, 147, 319 – 329. [PDF]

  • Abstract: Conventional wisdom has it that less working time is good for mitigating environmental pressure. Only a few studies have documented contradictory evidence. In this paper, we use panel threshold model, which is arguably the first of its kind in environmental analysis, to further document nonlinear relationships between working time and environmental pressure in EU-15 countries between 1970 and 2010. We find that the sign of this relationship shifts from positive to negative, as the working hours per worker decreases; France, Denmark, Germany, and the Netherlands experienced more environmental pressure with shorter working week. To the backdrop of reduced working time during our research period, our paper sheds new light on the traditional view of “the less, the better,” as curtailing working time beyond certain thresholds may inadvertently incur exacerbation of environmental pressure.
  • Discussed on The Guardian, The Conversation.

Other Publications

Liao, X., Shen, S. V., & Shi, X. The effects of behavioral intention on the choice to purchase energy-saving appliances in China: the role of environmental attitude, concern, and perceived psychological benefits in shaping intention. Accepted at Energy Efficiency.

O’Brien, R. D., & Shen, S. V. (2013). The U.S., China, and Cybersecurity: The Ethical Underpinnings of a Controversial Geopolitical Issue.

Inactive Paper

Shen, S. V. Using Machine Learning to Find Environmentally At-Risk Communities.